Horse racing Videos – Hotel Rajka

For example, the going at Cheltenham last week was Good and it was noticeable that connections did not want to risk some of their better class horses making seasonal returns and debuts on anything other than totally ideal jumping ground. It could be that the summer types have conditions swung back in their favour at this later stage of their Bolts Up Daily campaigns. In theory William Money is thrown-in racing of a 15lb lower mark than when winning over fences 2 days ago. The question is whether he will transfer that form to hurdles. Live and Table Games have a 0% contribution, only Slots & instants count towards playthrough. Today, horse racing betting is a £4.6 billion per year industry.

50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3, 2m)

To frame this year’s expectation, we need to look backwards. Below is the same information but with the key metrics ranked, e.g. Mullins’ 2020 Festival win percentage was his second best of the past five Festivals; it was his best of five Festivals on each of EW%, PRB, IV, and A/E. So we’ll use IV, PRB and A/E as way points to navigate to a conclusion; but against which period(s) should we measure performance?

Ballyadam – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle – 14/1 bet365 (NRNB, BOG)

Like all humans, trainers are creatures of habit, so get to know theirs. Some will have really good records at certain tracks and really poor records at others. Some will have regular quiet spells at particular times of the year and other spells when the winners readily flow.

Arkle Chase – Shishkin to win by six lengths-plus (10/3 Skybet)

Conditions were pretty terrible that day which wouldn’t have suited Teddy Blue at all so it was no real surprise, especially given the amount of energy he’d wasted early on, that he’d effectively shot his bolt by the third-last. He has few miles on the clock and was much improved when second at Wolverhampton last time. The best tipsGet the very best advice direct from the horse’s mouth via our expert tips page, featuring free tips as well as exclusive advice from some of the best judges in the business. The racecardsFind out more about the daily races, upcoming events and big-race entries via our cards page.

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2022 Preview, Trends, Tips

In 2008, Fiveforthree bridged that class chasm as a 7/1 chance in the Ballymore – now Gallagher – i.e. this race. And in 2022, The Nice Guy did likewise at 18/1 in the Spuds race. Thirty others tried and failed, though you’d have got paid out on at least six of them for a place. In other words, market wise, they’ve probably fared no worse than any other Willie cohort; which is to say losing a little bit over time and the real longshots don’t win. Best of the British could be Handstands, for Ben Pauling and former Gold Cup sponsor Tim Radford. He is an unbeaten domestic, defending a point and three hurdle scores, the most recent of which was in the Listed Sidney Banks at Huntingdon, where he beat the previous Grade 1 winner and subsequent Grade 2 second, Jango Baie.

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So that leaves Guineas heroine Elmalka and See The Fire as the main dangers.
He’s a very shrewd trainer who has Definitely Red in the Gold Cup.
Cleeve Hill for example, where the Gold Cup originated, is the highest point both of the Cotswolds hill range and in Gloucestershire.
Roger Varian’s sprinter was unlucky not to take the spoils at Sandown, enduring a troubled passaged over the minimum trip.
She was second in the Mare’s Novice Hurdle in 2021 and was a well beaten in last year’s Arkle but that was a much better race than this.
California Gem disappointed in fourth that afternoon but made amends in a Ripon maiden 12 days later, defeating Boom Boom Pow by three-quarters of a length.

So you can know exactly what people are talking about, you should make sure to learn some of the following lingo. The Betway Handicap Chase tops the bill at Kempton, with four LIVE races at the Sunbury-On-Thames track, while the stayers are out again up at Newcastle for the gruelling Eider Chase that’s run over 4m1f. Then down at Lingfield the All Weather racing fans get their fix with a top-notch card that includes the Group 3 Winter Derby. We’ve another busy afternoon in store with seven LIVE ITV races spread across three tracks – Kempton, Lingfield and Newcastle. AU FLEURON holds an each-way squeak in what is a typically tough handicap hurdle to conclude the Cheltenham Festival.

A model of consistency, APT has yet to finish outside of the first three in 13 Rules starts.
He could easily bounce back but is not the ‘gimme’ he looked going into the November meeting.
If you’d had the proverbial crystal ball and been able to predict every front-runner at HQ since 2009, you’d have been on to a very good thing as you can see from the table below, taken from geegeez’ Query Tool.
That’s a 3.41% strike rate for a loss of 119 points (ROI -40.61).
In a deep contest, the likes of La Pasionaira, Queen Of Soldiers and Treasure are all capable of getting involved at generous prices.
Assuming that all’s well after an absence of just on four months, he sets a high standard here and should be competitive in a higher grade than this Class 4 event in the future.

‘Devastated’ Aidan O’Brien hits out at Melbourne Cup stewards as Jan Brueghel is ruled out

If any horse can stop State Man’s procession to glory it might be Irish Point, in the Robcour colours and trained by Gordon Elliott. This time last year, while State Man was getting closest to Constitution Hill, Irish Point was winning a Grade 3 novice hurdle at Naas. He’s since won the 2m4f Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ at Aintree, and then this season he’s added a Grade 3 at Down Royal and the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown. But that Leopardstown race is contested over almost three miles and, as the name suggests, it was contested at the end of last year. It was a terrifically convincing score there but in a slow time beating (relatively) slow horses. I don’t see how that makes him second pick for a Champion Hurdle.

Novices’ Hurdle result

Quite apart from the small field and deep ground, that result is flattering because Boothill looked booked for a certain second, within ten lengths or so of the winner, when ejecting two out. Connections mentioned after that 28th career start, Edwardstone’s first as a ten-year-old, that they’d worked out how to ride him. In any case, that chat is patent hogwash as a record of four wins from six completed starts – including the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase – when racing prominently asserts. Further, he won the Tingle Creek (G1) when held up so, you know, it’s not about the run style, is it? That said, such a sound bite implies he’ll want to go forward here and he is unlikely to be alone in that desire.

Our Trader and Scout have picked out the following bets for Race 2 👇🏼

The main danger is last term’s scorer Billaway, who relishes this stamina test. He looks sure to be finishing best of all and will be many punters’ place option. Depending on your selections, you can place a variety of bet types, including singles and multiples. You can add selections straight from a Bet Builder match centre, making it simpler and quicker to place bets backed by data. CommissionYou’ll need to take into account commission paid to Betfair ranging from 2 – 5% depending on how much you bet with them.

Cheltenham Festival Open Grade 1 Micro System

MT – This is a great betting race, as it’s a different test from most of the races through the season and throws up some big priced winner as a result. Only one winner shorter than 11/1 in the past nine years. Favori de Champdou and Affordale Fury are two of interest, but whatever you like, swing win only rather than each way.

Paqueta to miss game as he’s summoned to parliament amid betting probe

It probably makes sense to compare a longer period pre-Cheltenham with a shorter period pre-Cheltenham with performance at the Festival itself. Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) is a means of applying a sliding scale of merit to every finishing position, and doing it in relation to the field size in which that finish was achieved. For instance, 2nd of four has less merit on this metric than 2nd of 40 – and rightly so, of course. Sizing John in 2017 was trying a longer trip and was ridden accordingly, with patience.

He’s proven on softer ground and will get this race run to suit with plenty of competition for the lead.
Her earlier form is very useful and she can give weight and a beating to her rivals.
You can determine the conditions different horses like by looking at their past performances.
He made a perfectly reasonable comeback at Newton Abbot 3 weeks ago when finishing third to Arian, beaten just 6-lengths and he now races in Class 4 for the first time in almost 5 years.
Nube Negra starts as favourite in the penultimate race of the day.
Gold Dancer could conceivably step forward significantly from his first run for his new trainer but he’d very much need to.

30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)

Charlie Fellowes’ speedy mare won this in 2021 and grows an extra leg when the mud is flying. She has won three times on soft and heavy ground and conditions are in her favour. Again we see winners up and down the odds boards, with the sweet (but highly unpredictable and potentially coincidental) spot being north of 25/1 and south of 80/1. Those unconsidered athletes have bagged nine of the 50 races for a profit of 23 points at SP and 331 points at BSP (thanks almost entirely to one enormous return). Of the 964 runners in such races in the past ten years, 842 (87%) were aged five to eight (ignoring the Fred Winter). They won all bar two of the races (95%), and claimed 92% of the places.

He has won all three hurdles races easily, including a Grade One at Leopardstown, and there is a strong suspicion we have yet to see just how could he is.
I’m going to go for MEETINGOFTHEWATERS, he should get the distance fine and you can’t argue with Willie Mullins’ runners in these big races.
What I mean by that is, horses who are a much shorter price than the second horse in the betting tend to do best here at the festival.
The racecardsFind out more about the daily races, upcoming events and big-race entries via our cards page.
He was being closed down by Riviere d’Etel, who had led to the last fence before blundering, but was conceding nine pounds to that five-year-old mare.
Both of Henry de Bromhead’s mares present each-way opportunities.
The Daily Double consists of both the NAP and NB and is a great way of covering our two best bets of the day to maximise profit.
It could be that the summer types have conditions swung back in their favour at this later stage of their campaigns.

Rachel King: The Australia-based British jockey riding a Japanese horse in an American race

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Delta Work is the reigning champ, having retained his crown a year ago, and bids for the three-peat (as they say across the pond – yuk). He’s knocking on a bit now, eleven years young, but that didn’t stop his mate Tiger Roll from bagging his own hat-trick (that’s better) at the same age. When Delta Work won this last year he prepped with a 13 length 6th of eight in the Boyne Hurdle at Navan; this year he’s prepped with a 15 length 6th of eight in the same race, so we all know where we are with him. He handles wet ground fine – it’s wetter on the infield track than the Old and New Courses – and knows his way home blindfold around there. I mean, I expect this to be well run and the top two in the market – who are clearly the best two horses in the field – have had persistent jumping frailties. While they’re comfortably the most likely pair for the exacta, that’s not the way to bet.

Horse Racing Tips: A 7/2 nap tops our trader’s Friday night fancies at the Breeders’ Cup

The British handicapper seems not to be on the same page with his European counterparts, ranking Irish form more highly and French form lower. On that basis, it’s easy enough to bypass Gaelic Warrior at such cramped odds and I don’t really want to be with The Tide Turns at not much bigger, though naturally I respect the chance of both. Burning Victory was the beneficiary of Goshen’s black swan event at the last in the Triumph Hurdle of 2020 and she’s travelled all over the place since. Specifically, she’s taken in the Galway Hurdle (7th), a Deauville handicap (1st), the Cesarewitch (2nd), a Navan handicap hurdle (tailed off), the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle (3rd) and that defeat of Queen’s Brook last time.

Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins each have nine, and the next best of Jonjo O’Neill, with four. Be wary of horses wearing headgear, especially blinkers or cheekpieces, in Open Grade 1’s at the Festival. The link to this market (at the bottom, in the ‘lengthen the odds’ section) is here. His form this campaign is well clear of any other two mile chaser on either side of the Irish Sea.

Icing On The Cake unseated at the third in that Ludlow race having dug deep to win at Newbury on his previous outing. There are a few firms quoting double figures for his chances. This year’s fundraiser will again be centred around the Cheltenham Festival. For a donation of £25 you will get the exclusive Cheltenham preview, horses to follow direct from the Lambourn trainers plus membership for the period 11th to 19th March. Your full £25 will go directly to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust. Chef D’Oeuvre won unchallenged on desperate ground at Hereford and that piece of form is difficult to evaluate.

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The merit of that heavy ground G1 form is unclear with the second and third getting thumped next time, but the winner could have done no more. He is clearly a very classy recruit whose maiden win offers hope that the quicker Cheltenham turf won’t be a problem. We have to yet to see what he’ll find off the bridle, though, and it is hard to imagine any horse taking this ‘on the snaff’. Of course, it is sometimes difficult to predict who the favourite will be pre-race which can be an issue for trying to exploit ‘market data’. However, as a general rule, the stronger the favourite the better. What I mean by that is, horses who are a much shorter price than the second horse in the betting tend to do best here at the festival.

I feel like the quicker they go the better for him, as he looks a very strong stayer. Marine Nationale was the early season poster boy – and he might perhaps be the late season heartthrob, too, except that we’ve not seen him since early December; his form has taken a few dents in the interim. Mr Vango has it to do on the ratings and the other three all met in the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot last time, where Henry’s Friend held off Kilbeg King and Apple Away. It may look surprising that the winner is now the outsider of that trio, but he is the one least likely to stay this six-furlong longer trip, and I’m in agreement with the betting market, for all I like the horse. Love Envoi, winner of the Mares’ Novices Hurdle here in 2022, finished a 1 ½ length second to Honeysuckle in this race last year.

Likely to be quick, as forward-goers like High Definition and Rare Edition collide with an ocean of adrenaline coursing through the jockeys’ veins for the first rising tape of the week. The 2023 Cheltenham Festival is here, and it’s going to be a belter! 28 races, almost all of them head-scratching puzzles in terms wagering possibilities…

The favourite, and very short at that, is trained by Willie Mullins and owned by Mrs S Ricci, and he is called Gaelic Warrior. Still a maiden after three hurdle starts in France he has a mark of just 129 which compares very favourably with his French peg of 63kg (multiply by 2.2 to get 138.6 pounds, making GW ten pounds ‘well in’). In his most recent start, Gaelic Warrior was outpaced on heavy ground before finishing strongly to take third of 14. The second horse, Golden Son, has since won a Grade 2 before claiming runner up honours in a G1; while the winner, Sans Bruit, has won a Grade 3 and been third in a Grade 2. Let’s start on home shores and Constitution Hill has looked all class in a pair of facile Sandown scores to date, trouncing a field of maidens before treating his Grade 1 Tolworth rivals with similar disdain.

The opening day always majors on speed, quality, and drama from the get-go, with a double-barrelled Grade 1 two-mile novice volley to kick us off. Irish-trained runners have more than twice the strike rate of their counterparts trained in UK. Moreover, they’ve enjoyed a 55p in the £ difference in their returns, and a clear differential between the A/E indices.

But as a professional you do not have bets just for the sake of it. 2016 Cheltenham Champion bumper winner Ballyandy could well improve, but is very short in the market on hurdles form achieved. Essentially a 2m 6f horse who would have to make this his first ever win over 3m. At the 8/1 on offer worth considering a win only value bet. Beyond Conceit impressed when returning from a long absence on hurdles debut.

My Mate Mozzie was only a length and a half behind Found A Fifty but hasn’t raced this year, and his best form looks to be on better ground. Mistergif led on his sole Irish start though that was a maiden hurdle only, while Tullyhill has led the last twice. Firefox has also led in two of his last three, likewise Tellherthename. Even to fast looks the most likely pace setup on the scant evidence we have. Mystical Power runs in the green and gold of JP McManus, but is co-owned by Susannah Ricci and Mrs John Magnier.

That third dance was hastily arranged to facilitate qualification for the Boodles though I’m not sure 137 is a gimme of a mark considering he was only a mildly progressive mid-70’s handicapper on the level for Sir Mark Prescott. A feature of the handicap hurdles this year is the almost total dominance of the top end of the handicap by Irish runners. This is as a direct result of the recalibration of ratings in the British hurdling division and, depending on your perspective, it either shows how much better the Irish horses are or it gives Team GB (ugh) a better chance.

Fifteen is also a neat number as we can easily compare 5–year periods (2008–2012; 2013–2017; 2018–2022) to see what, if anything has changed. MT – Coming round to Bravemansgame having not been a fan early season – he’s very hard to knock. A good half dozen possible pace angles here, headed perhaps by Mighty Mo Missouri.

Western Climate runs in his first handicap having run well in a Hereford novice that is looking to be quite strong form. Deposit & play £10 on Bingo within 7 days to get £40 Bingo bonus, 50 Free Spins & Club Voucher. Selected games, wagering requirement and expiry dates apply. Up to 200 spins over 4 day period from first deposit & spend of £10. Max 50 spins each day at 10p per spin for 4 consecutive days.

They are 0 from 22, though then nine-year-old Whisper nearly benefited from Might Bite’s errant course up the hill last year in the RSA Chase. It is worth noting that nine of those 22 were priced at 7/1 or shorter. That would have netted 36 winners from 180 runners (20% strike rate, 69% race win strike rate) and a level stakes profit of 46.48 points at Starting Price. Moreover, the approach was profitable in eight of the ten years, exceptions being 2016 and 2009.

Some of Cheltenham’s greatest scenes have been provided by the likes of Istabraq, Like A Butterfly and Danoli, and our friends from across the water are throwing the kitchen sink behind Samcro. “The horse is very good. I wasn’t happy with the position I had during the race, but he’s such a good horse that he got me through.” Teenager Jack Kennedy made sure there was no hard luck story by keeping out of trouble on the outside and cruised into contention on the final bend, taking up the running from Vision Des Flos.